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Currency · USD

US dollar

What the news says about the US dollar, and where its rates, macro data, CFTC positioning and strength against the other 7 currencies stand, each reading against its own history.

News tone (24 h)

+0.26

Positive tone

Medium confidence

Declared by the AI and not yet calibrated.

Based on 64 stories: 9 negative, 3 neutral and 52 positive.

See the news ↓

It is an average weighted by each story’s importance and the AI’s confidence, so it may not match the count. Updated 22 minutes ago

How reliable is it? →How it is calculated

Pohuant publishes general, descriptive information. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Trading in the markets involves a risk of loss.

Readings by factor

Where each official series stands against its own history. These are not forecasts.

Relative strength

  • Performance against the other 7 currencies, 20 sessions (ECB rates)

    0.11 %

    Percentile 49 of 5 years · Usual

    -0.02 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 28, 2026

    Source: ECB (ECB Data Portal). Evidence: No predictive evidence: studies fx_cross_sectional_reversal:v1 and csfx_momentum_review:v1 inconclusive.

  • Performance against the other 7 currencies, 60 sessions (ECB rates)

    1.83 %

    Percentile 71 of 5 years · High

    +2.26 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 28, 2026

    Source: ECB (ECB Data Portal). Evidence: No predictive evidence: studies fx_cross_sectional_reversal:v1 and csfx_momentum_review:v1 inconclusive.

Macro

  • Macro momentum: official indicators against their trend (−1 to 1)

    0.04 index

    Percentile 58 of 5 years · Usual

    +0.13 index over 1 week · Data as of Oct 20, 2026

    Sources: BLS, BEA, Census, Fed, Eurostat, ONS, StatCan, e-Stat, FSO, OECD. Evidence: No predictive validation (out-of-sample IC ≈ +0.01).

Rates and curves

  • Central bank policy rate

    3.88 %

    Percentile 43 of 5 years · Usual

    +25 bp over 3 months · Data as of Oct 20, 2026

    Source: Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Evidence: No predictive validation (out-of-sample IC ≈ 0); carry study fx_carry_spot:v1 inconclusive.

  • 10-year bond

    4.99 %

    Percentile 98 of 5 years · Very high

    -13 bp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 27, 2026

    Source: U.S. Treasury via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Evidence: No predictive validation (out-of-sample IC ≈ 0); carry study fx_carry_spot:v1 inconclusive.

  • 2-year bond

    4.7 %

    Percentile 83 of 5 years · High

    -9 bp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 27, 2026

    Source: U.S. Treasury via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Evidence: No predictive validation (out-of-sample IC ≈ 0); carry study fx_carry_spot:v1 inconclusive.

Valuation

  • Real effective exchange rate against its 10-year trend

    4.4 %

    Percentile 25 of 15 years · Low

    -1.2 pp over 1 month · Data as of Sep 30, 2026

    Source: Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Evidence: Pre-registered review reer_valuation_review:v1 rejected.

USD positioning is not directly observed in CFTC data; it is not shown.

US dollar pairs

Recent news

Headline and link to the original outlet, with our own summary and the tone for this page.