Currency · JPY

Japanese yen

What the news says about the Japanese yen, and where its rates, macro data, CFTC positioning and strength against the other 7 currencies stand, each reading against its own history.

News tone (24 h)

+0.41

Positive tone

−10+1

Medium confidence

Declared by the AI and not yet calibrated.

Based on 3 stories: 1 negative, 0 neutral and 2 positive.

See the news ↓

It is an average weighted by each story’s importance and the AI’s confidence, so it may not match the count. Updated 5 hours ago

How reliable is it? →How it is calculated

Pohuant publishes general, descriptive information. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Trading in the markets involves a risk of loss.

Readings by factor

Where each official series stands against its own history. These are not forecasts.

Relative strength

Performance against the other 7 currencies, 20 sessions (ECB rates)
-0.59 %
Percentile 51 of 5 years · Usual
-0.75 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 28, 2026
Source: ECB (ECB Data Portal). Evidence: No predictive evidence: studies fx_cross_sectional_reversal:v1 and csfx_momentum_review:v1 inconclusive.
Performance against the other 7 currencies, 60 sessions (ECB rates)
1.56 %
Percentile 82 of 5 years · High
-2.14 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 28, 2026
Source: ECB (ECB Data Portal). Evidence: No predictive evidence: studies fx_cross_sectional_reversal:v1 and csfx_momentum_review:v1 inconclusive.

Macro

Macro momentum: official indicators against their trend (−1 to 1)
0.39 index
Percentile 98 of 5 years · Very high
+0.03 index over 1 week · Data as of Oct 24, 2026
Sources: BLS, BEA, Census, Fed, Eurostat, ONS, StatCan, e-Stat, FSO, OECD. Evidence: No predictive validation (out-of-sample IC ≈ +0.01).

CFTC positioning

Asset managers' net position in CME futures (% of open interest)
20.9 %
Percentile 78 of 3 years · High
+3.2 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 20, 2026
Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Evidence: Pre-registered review cftc_flows_review:v1 rejected.
Leveraged funds' net position in CME futures (% of open interest)
-6 %
Percentile 77 of 3 years · High
+3 pp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 20, 2026
Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Evidence: Pre-registered review cftc_flows_review:v1 rejected.

Rates and curves

Central bank policy rate
1.25 %
Percentile 100 of 5 years · Very high
+25 bp over 3 months · Data as of Oct 20, 2026
Source: Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Evidence: No predictive validation (out-of-sample IC ≈ 0); carry study fx_carry_spot:v1 inconclusive.
10-year bond
2.83 %
Percentile 96 of 5 years · Very high
-9.8 bp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 27, 2026
Source: Ministry of Finance Japan. Evidence: No predictive validation (out-of-sample IC ≈ 0); carry study fx_carry_spot:v1 inconclusive.
2-year bond
1.89 %
Percentile 98 of 5 years · Very high
-2.1 bp over 1 week · Data as of Oct 27, 2026
Source: Ministry of Finance Japan. Evidence: No predictive validation (out-of-sample IC ≈ 0); carry study fx_carry_spot:v1 inconclusive.

Valuation

Real effective exchange rate against its 10-year trend
-24.2 %
Percentile 17 of 15 years · Low
+2.9 pp over 1 month · Data as of Sep 30, 2026
Source: Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Evidence: Pre-registered review reer_valuation_review:v1 rejected.